The debate is long not over yet

The possible nationalisation of South Africa’s mines – that hornet's nest first opened up by ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema – continues to be the one single policy issue of concern to South Africa-watchers everywhere, as has  been demonstrated again recently by British media reports during President Jacob Zuma’s state visit to London. The bottom line, however, is that South African government leaders are unable to give any unequivocal answer as to whether or not nationalisation may become a future reality, leaving the issue open to more harmful speculation and uncertainty.

The debate has dominated public, media and investor forums in South Africa and abroad, and yet the Zuma government continues to send out mixed signals about the matter.

Simply consider some of the following answers given recently and last week in London by South Africa’s president and his ministers, to the question whether nationalisation of the mines is or will become government policy:

President Jacob Zuma: On 16 February 2010, Zuma told Parliament that nationalisation was not government policy; that the government could not stop ANCYL leader Julius Malema and other political formations from debating nationalisation, and told those who are asking questions about the government’s policy on nationalisation to “debate the views of Malema and don't confuse a debate raised to policy of government”.

On 2 March in London, he said the current policy of the ANC is not to nationalise, that there is too much concern as if the government were about to legislate on the matter.

(In both instances, Zuma failed to give any unequivocal assurance that nationalisation of the mines will not become ANC and government policy sometime in the future.)

Trade & Industry Minister Rob Davies: "It's not by any means remotely government policy. I don't think it's imminently so (to become policy) and I think it's unlikely to become so, in the immediate future anyway."

(Davies thus says it’s not current policy and is not likely to become policy in the “immediate” future – but he gives no clear answer as to whether it might or could become policy in the longer term as, for example, at the ANC’s next national conference in 2012.)

Mining Minister Susan Shabangu: "The policy of nationalisation doesn't exist in South Africa. South Africa is a democratic country and we have an open society and everyone has the right to raise any aspect under the sun. He (Malema) must present his position at the ANC’s national general council. But... South Africa is part of the global world, it's part of the global community, and on the basis of that, South Africa cannot go back and work against the world."

(No clear yes or no. While she says there is no such policy at present and on the basis of being part of the global community, it should not become policy, she nonetheless fails to give any assurance that it will not become her government’s policy and leaves the door wide open with this fuzzy answer.)

Against the above comments by Zuma and his ministers, compare then what Malema, and others calling for nationalisation, are saying:

ANCYL President Julius Malema: "We don't care who says what. Nationalisation will become the policy of the ANC. We don't want Zuma's or [Deputy Police Minister Fikile] Mbalula's support... we want the support of the masses. If the masses say you are correct, we will march on.”

Cosatu Gauteng’s provincial secretary Dumisani Dakile: "The call by the ANCYL (for nationalisation) is proper and very progressive in this instance. Nationalisation has long been on the agenda of the federation. In fact, the call of the youth league is in support of Cosatu."

For nationalisation of the mines (or anything else) in South Africa to become policy and then law, a process has to be followed. Within the ruling ANC, that process works more or less as follows:

The proposed policy issue will be raised first in some part of the ANC-led Alliance (in this case, the Youth League). The person/faction/organisation pushing the issue will try to popularise it (which is exactly what Malema and company are doing), taking it to branch and regional levels, and raising it on every available platform (see Malema’s various recent speeches to students, township residents etc.).

Malema has added that he does not need Zuma’s support – that with mass support, nationalisation will become ANC policy.

Discussions then will follow at these levels and position/discussion papers may be presented – and adopted – at regional and provincial conferences. From there, the issue may be taken up in a discussion document submitted to an ANC national policy conference, or to a national general council (Shabangu suggested that Malema should submit the nationalisation question to such a council meeting), or it will be submitted to the ANC’s national conference where it can be adopted, thus becoming policy.

Thereafter, the legislative process regarding the issue will be set in motion. The next ANC national conference will take place in 2012. At the previous national conference in 2007, similar processes preceded the making of policy and subsequent legislation (some of it still in progress) on issues ranging from the “transformation” of the judiciary, tighter controls over the media, launching a National Health Insurance system, possible scrapping of the system of provinces to create a single, centralise public service, to giving Parliament a say in the drawing up of the National Budget.

Malema’s call for nationalisation is still in the grassroots debate and popularisation phase of this process. It will be interesting to see what future regional and provincial ANC forums do with it.

While Malema and the Youth League – with support from Cosatu and qualified support from the SA Communist Party – have launched the policy process, it is still a long route to legislation. Not knowing what the extent of support for the proposal will be from grassroots level upward, Zuma and company will not risk taking a decisive stand against nationalisation ever becoming ANC policy. Nor do they have the courage to take on Malema and the very large youth constituency he represents, already somewhat having burnt their bridges to their partners on the Left.

In the meantime, the very damaging public debate and speculation about the issue will continue here and abroad. It certainly will have a damaging effect on the investment climate associated with South Africa.